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Projecting the impact of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Ontario, Canada

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Vilches, Thomas N. [1] ; Zhang, Kevin [2] ; Van Exan, Robert [3] ; Langley, Joanne M. [4, 5] ; Moghadas, Seyed M. [6]
Número total de Autores: 5
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Math Stat & Sci Comp, Campinas, SP - Brazil
[2] Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8 - Canada
[3] Immunizat Policy & Knowledge Translat, Trent Lakes, ON K0M 1A0 - Canada
[4] Dalhousie Univ, Canadian Ctr Vaccinol, IWK Hlth Ctr, Halifax, NS B3K 6R8 - Canada
[5] Nova Scotia Hlth Author, Halifax, NS B3K 6R8 - Canada
[6] York Univ, Agent Based Modelling Lab, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 - Canada
Número total de Afiliações: 6
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: Vaccine; v. 39, n. 17, p. 2360-2365, APR 22 2021.
Citações Web of Science: 0

Background: A number of highly effective COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and approved for mass vaccination. We evaluated the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreak and disease outcomes in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We used an agent-based transmission model and parameterized it with COVID-19 characteristics, demographics of Ontario, and age-specific clinical outcomes. We implemented a two-dose vaccination program according to tested schedules in clinical trials for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, prioritizing healthcare workers, individuals with comorbidities, and those aged 65 and older. Daily vaccination rate was parameterized based on vaccine administration data. Using estimates of vaccine efficacy, we projected the impact of vaccination on the overall attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths. We further investigated the effect of increased daily contacts at different stages during vaccination campaigns on outbreak control. Results: Maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with an average of 74% reduction in daily contacts, vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines was projected to reduce hospitalizations by 27.3% (95% CrI: 22.3% - 32.4%) and 27.0% (95% CrI: 21.9% - 32.6%), respectively, over a oneyear time horizon. The largest benefits of vaccination were observed in preventing deaths with reductions of 31.5% (95% CrI: 22.5% - 39.7%) and 31.9% (95% CrI: 22.0% - 41.4%) for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, compared to no vaccination. We found that an increase of only 10% in daily contacts at the end of lockdown, when vaccination coverage with only one dose was 6%, would trigger a surge in the outbreak. Early relaxation of population-wide measures could lead to a substantial increase in the number of infections, potentially reaching levels observed during the peak of the second wave in Ontario. Conclusions: Vaccination can substantially mitigate ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks. Sustaining populationwide NPIs, to allow for a sufficient increase in population-level immunity through vaccination, is essential to prevent future outbreaks. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 18/24811-1 - Modelagem matemática para transmissão de esquistossomose em áreas de baixa prevalência
Beneficiário:Thomas Nogueira Vilches
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado