Mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon basin in a changing climate under global warming

Autor(es)

Rehbein, Amanda ; Ambrizzi, Tercio

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Climate Dynamics; v. N/A, p. 13-pg., 2023-01-10.

Resumo

Climate change is imminent and threatens the largest watershed in the world, the Amazon basin. As general circulation models may fail to represent cloud-scale phenomena, precipitation in a changing climate under global warming is still a factor of great uncertainty, especially in Tropical regions. In this study, we used long-term high-resolution simulations from a global cloud-resolving model under the scope of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to verify the climate change impacts on the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Amazon basin. We generated a complete spatial, temporal, and statistical characterization of the MCSs for the past (1950-1960), present (2000-2010), and near-future (2040-2050). We found that MCSs are a critical mechanism for precipitation, especially in austral winter. The simulations are consistent with the observed precipitation and MCSs patterns over the Amazon basin, indicating that MCSs are less frequent compared to the past and are expected to continuously decline in the near-future. Most decreases are projected from September to December, while an increase between June to August, mainly in the southern portion of the Amazon basin. In addition, the investigation presented here shows the great potential of using a global cloud-resolving model under the CMIP6 scope to investigate mesoscale systems in a warming climate. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 16/10557-0 - Sistemas convectivos de mesoescala sobre a bacia Amazônica: clima presente e projeções futuras em cenário de mudanças climáticas
• Beneficiário: Amanda Rehbein
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 17/09659-6 - Variabilidade interanual dos transportes meridionais através da rede transatlântica SAMOC (SAMBAR)
• Beneficiário: Edmo José Dias Campos
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático