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DYNAMIC SYSTEMS APPROACH TO ASSESS AND MANAGE WATER RESOURCES IN RIVER BASINS

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Autor(es):
Sanchez-Roman, Rodrigo Maximo ; Folegatti, Marcos Vinicius ; Guadalupe Orellana Gonzalez, Alba Maria ; da Silva, Rogerio Teixeira
Número total de Autores: 4
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: CIENTIA AGRICOL; v. 66, n. 4, p. 9-pg., 2009-07-01.
Resumo

The Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are located in the States of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, Brazil. By 2005, 5.8% of Brazil's General National Product-GNP was produced there. Such economic development has created a huge demand for water resources. The availability of water resources was assessed by running a dynamic systems simulation model to manage these resources in the RB-PCJ (WRM-PCJ), considering five 50-year simulations. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model computes water supply, demands, and contamination load from several consumers. When considering a Business-as-Usual scenario, by 2054, water demands will have increased up to 76%, 39% of the available water will come from wastewater reuse, and the contamination load will have increased by 91%. The Falkenmark Index started at 1403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, ending at 734 m(3) P-1 yr(-1) in 2054; the Xu Sustainability Index started at 0.44 and ended at 0.20; and Keller's River Basin Development Phases started as Phase II, and ended at final Phase III, of Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that RB-PCJ is at a crucial management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and proved to be an excellent tool to assess water resources availability. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 06/60954-4 - Mudanças socioambientais no estado de São Paulo e perspectivas para a conservação
Beneficiário:Luciano Martins Verdade
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Temático