| Texto completo | |
| Autor(es): |
Vieira, Giovani T. T.
;
Silva, Walquiria N.
;
Lourenco, Luis F. N.
;
Monaro, Renato M.
;
Salles, Mauricio B. C.
;
Almeida, Carlos F. M.
Número total de Autores: 6
|
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo Científico |
| Fonte: | Electric Power Systems Research; v. 254, p. 15-pg., 2026-05-01. |
| Resumo | |
Brazil's National Interconnected System (SIN) has rapidly expanded wind, centralized solar, and behind-the-meter PV (Mini and Micro Distributed Generation (MMDG)), with curtailment increasing in parallel. We compile hourly operational data for wind (Jan 2022-Oct 2025) and solar curtailment (Apr 2024-Oct 2025); MMDG data are available from Apr 2024 onward. Curtailment is analyzed as classified by the National System Operator (ONS) into Reliability-Based (REB), Electrical-Based (ELB), and Demand-Based (DEB) events; ELB is excluded because it requires detailed grid data and power flow studies, which are beyond our scope. A unified statistical framework: two-proportion Z-tests by load bins, Spearman rank correlations with bootstrap confidence intervals, and multivariate logistic regression, identifies operating conditions most associated with curtailment. Results reveal two distinct regimes. Under DEB, curtailment is structurally driven by net-load depression:MMDG is the strongest predictor for both solar (Odds Ratio (OR) approximate to 9.8) and wind (OR approximate to 6.2), while system load acts protectively. Under REB, wind curtailment is primarily linked to high renewable output from the Northeast (Northeast (NE)) region (OR approximate to 5.9), reflecting the conservative dispatch adopted by ONS, avoiding high levels of generation from Inverter-based resources. Conversely, solar REB risk is aggravated by high system load (OR approximate to 2.3), characterizing a peak-stress phenomenon, and is associated with protective dispatch aimed at managing the rapid solar ramp-down, thereby reducing the evening peak risk. Results highlight targeted remedies, including storage for frequency support, dynamic line rating for export relief, energy-intensive loads to increase the demand, and loads that can be connected as demand-response. (AU) | |
| Processo FAPESP: | 20/15230-5 - Centro de Pesquisa e Inovação de Gases de Efeito Estufa - RCG2I |
| Beneficiário: | Julio Romano Meneghini |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Centros de Pesquisa Aplicada |