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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Calibration and combination of seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America using Ensemble Regression

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Autor(es):
Osman, Marisol [1, 2, 3] ; Coelho, Caio A. S. [4] ; Vera, Carolina S. [1, 2, 3]
Número total de Autores: 3
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina
[2] Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina
[3] UBA, CONICET, CNRS, IRD, Inst Franco Argentino Estudio Clima & Impacto, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina
[4] Inst Natl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Sao Paulo - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 4
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: Climate Dynamics; v. 57, n. 9-10, p. 2889-2904, NOV 2021.
Citações Web of Science: 0
Resumo

Models participating in the North American Multi Model Ensemble project were calibrated and combined to produce reliable precipitation probabilistic forecast over South America. Ensemble Regression method (EREG) was chosen as it is computationally affordable and uses all the information from the ensemble. Two different approaches based on EREG were applied to combine forecasts while different ways to weight the relative contribution of each model to the ensemble were used. All the consolidated forecast obtained were confronted against the simple multi-model ensemble. This work assessed the performance of the predictions initialized in November to forecast the austral summer (December-January-February) for the period 1982-2010 using different probabilistic measures. Results show that the consolidated forecasts produce more skillful forecast than the simple multi-model ensemble, although no major differences were found between the combination and weighting approaches considered. The regions that presented better results are well-known to be impacted by El Nino Southern Oscillation. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 15/50687-8 - Serviços climáticos através de co-produção de conhecimento: uma iniciativa europeia e da América do Sul para fortalecer as ações de adaptação da sociedade a eventos extremos
Beneficiário:Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático