Busca avançada
Ano de início
Entree
(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

A copula-based drought assessment framework considering global simulation models

Texto completo
Autor(es):
Ballarin, Andre S. [1] ; Barros, Gustavo L. [1] ; Cabrera, Manoel C. M. [2] ; Wendland, Edson C. [1]
Número total de Autores: 4
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Hydraul & Sanit Engn, Sao Carlos Sch Engn EESC, CxP 359, BR-13566590 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil
[2] Univ Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Exact & Technol Sci, BR-45662900 Illieus, BA - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 2
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES; v. 38, DEC 2021.
Citações Web of Science: 0
Resumo

Study region: Sao Paulo state - Brazil. Study focus: Compound events, such as droughts and heat waves, may have severe impacts on human activities. Traditionally, they are characterized considering a univariate perspective. However, this approach may not be the most adequate to characterize such hazards as they often result from a combination of variables interacting in space and time. Alternatively, several studies adopt the multivariate frequency analysis as it allows the consideration of concurrent drivers and their dependencies. Nevertheless, few of them evaluated this methodology in a climate change context. In view of this, this study aims to compare the uni and multivariate approaches to characterize extreme drought events considering both historical and future scenarios, using the severe water crisis experienced in the southeast region of Brazil in 2014-2015 as a study case. New hydrological insights for the region: The univariate approach can substantially underestimate the risk associated with extreme events. For future scenarios, differences between the two methodologies reached 90% of the estimated return period. Significant increasing trends were found only for temperature. Both approaches indicated that drought events will be more common and intense in the future. However, the univariate framework may misspecificate the associated risks, as it not account for the expected warming condition that may trigger or exacerbate extreme drought events. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 15/03806-1 - Disponibilidade hídrica e riscos de contaminação em áreas de afloramento do Sistema Aquífero Guarani
Beneficiário:Edson Cezar Wendland
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOEN - Temático