| Texto completo | |
| Autor(es): |
Burton, Chantelle A.
;
Kelley, Douglas I.
;
Burke, Eleanor
;
Mathison, Camilla
;
Jones, Chris D.
;
Betts, Richard A.
;
Robertson, Eddy
;
Teixeira, Joao C. M.
;
Cardoso, Manoel
;
Anderson, Liana O.
Número total de Autores: 10
|
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo Científico |
| Fonte: | NATURE GEOSCIENCE; v. 17, n. 11, p. 10-pg., 2024-10-03. |
| Resumo | |
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C by urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Paris temperature ambitions and remaining carbon budgets mostly use models that lack feedback among fire, vegetation and carbon, which are essential for understanding the future resilience of ecosystems. Here we use a coupled fire-vegetation model to explore regional impacts and feedbacks across global warming levels. We address whether the 1.5 degrees C goal is consistent with avoiding significant ecosystem changes when considering shifts in fire regimes. We find that the global warming level at which fire began to impact global carbon storage significantly was 1.07 degrees C (0.8-1.34 degrees C) above pre-industrial levels and conclude that fire is already playing a major role in decreasing the effectiveness of land carbon sinks. We estimate that considering fire reduces the remaining carbon budget by 25 Gt CO2 (similar to 5%) for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C and 64 GtCO(2) (similar to 5%) for 2.0 degrees C compared to previous estimates. Whereas limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C is still essential for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, in many cases, we are already reaching the point of significant change in ecosystems rich in carbon and biodiversity. (AU) | |
| Processo FAPESP: | 20/16457-3 - MAP-Fire: uma plataforma virtual para a gestão do balanço de carbono entre emissões pelo fogo e remoções por floresta secundárias para o Estado do Maranhão |
| Beneficiário: | Liana Oighenstein Anderson |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular |
| Processo FAPESP: | 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações |
| Beneficiário: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático |
| Processo FAPESP: | 17/22269-2 - Transição para sustentabilidade e o nexo água-agricultura-energia: explorando uma abordagem integradora com casos de estudo nos biomas Cerrado e Caatinga |
| Beneficiário: | Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático |
| Processo FAPESP: | 20/15230-5 - Centro de Pesquisa e Inovação de Gases de Efeito Estufa - RCG2I |
| Beneficiário: | Julio Romano Meneghini |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Centros de Pesquisa Aplicada |