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Improving current forecast by Leveraging Measured Data and numerical models via LiESNs

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Autor(es):
Moreno, Felipe M. ; de Barros, Marcel R. ; Jordao, Artur ; Mathias, Marlon S. ; Dottori, Marcelo ; Costa, Anna H. Reali ; Gomi, Edson S. ; Cozman, Fabio G. ; Tannuri, Eduardo A.
Número total de Autores: 9
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE; v. 192, p. 13-pg., 2025-08-01.
Resumo

Forecasting metocean conditions is essential for applications such as navigation and maritime operations. In this work, Leaky-integrator Echo State Networks (LiESN) are investigated to combine irregular time series of measurements to numerically modeled currents, producing a forecast of currents for a port entrance channel. The evaluated method can assimilate data from irregular time series, automatically addressing missing data. Different settings that convey scenarios with data unavailability before the forecast are evaluated using the Index of Agreement (IOA) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the performance metrics. Results show that while a numerical model does not improve accuracy, it improves the system's robustness in the case of missing data. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 19/07665-4 - Centro de Inteligência Artificial
Beneficiário:Fabio Gagliardi Cozman
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa eScience e Data Science - Centros de Pesquisa Aplicada