Probabilistic Prognostics and Health Management of Energy Systems

• Processo: 15/17819-8
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio Organização - Reunião Científica
• Data de Início da vigência: 14 de dezembro de 2015
• Data de Término da vigência: 15 de dezembro de 2015
• Área do conhecimento: Engenharias - Engenharia Mecânica
• Pesquisador responsável: Aparecido Carlos Gonçalves
• Beneficiário: Aparecido Carlos Gonçalves
• Instituição Sede: Faculdade de Engenharia (FEIS). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Ilha Solteira. Ilha Solteira , SP, Brasil
• Município da Instituição Sede: Ilha Solteira
• Assunto(s): Aerogerador
• Palavra(s)-Chave do Pesquisador: Health Management | Monitoramento da condição | Probabilistic Prognostics | Prognóstico probabilístico | Turbina Eólica | Wind turbine | Probabilistic Prognostics and Health Management

Resumo

The uncertainty in remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of wind turbine drivetrain is high. The determination of RUL in the field of Prognostics and Health Monitoring (PHM) has to consider the uncertainties in the current state of the system, future loading condition, future system parameters as well as the future process noise. The uncertainty in the aforementioned quantities need to be quantified and the RUL estimation shall reflect the uncertainty propagation of these quantities.The research topic to be discussed in the workshop has the following motivations.*high uncertainty in RUL prediction and the need for a true probability distribution of RUL,*the need for efficient sensing techniques,*the need for efficient filtering technique to quantify the distribution of the current state,*the need for computationally efficient physics/data based models for future state prediction, and the need for computationally efficient probabilistic sampling-based, analytical and hybrid methods to analyze uncertainty propagation in RUL determination.The scientists that will participate in the two day workshop have a very diverse area of research and very versatile background that ranges from industry, national laboratory, consultancy, research and academia. (AU)