Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios

Autor(es)

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Linton, Yvonne-Marie ^{[4, 5, 6, 7]} ; Wilkerson, Richard C. ^{[4, 5, 6]} ; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino ^[8] ; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri ^[1] ; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina ^[1] ; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Dept Epidemiol, BR-01255 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Lab Informat Med, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Fac Med ABC, Setor Posgrad Pesquisa & Inovacao, Santo Andre, SP - Brazil

^[4] Smithsonian Inst, Dept Entomol, Natl Museum Nat Hist, Washington, DC 20560 - USA

^[5] Walter Reed Army Inst Res, Div Entomol, Silver Spring, MD - USA

^[6] Smithsonian Inst, Walter Reed Biosystemat Unit, Museum Support Ctr, Suitland, MD - USA

^[7] Uniformed Serv Univ Hlth Sci, Dept Preventat Med & Biostat, Bethesda, MD 20814 - USA

^[8] Secretaria Estado Saude Sao Paulo, Superintendencia Controle Endemias SUCEN, Araraquara, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PARASITES & VECTORS; v. 8, AUG 19 2015.
• Citações Web of Science: 18

Resumo

Background: Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. Methods: To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Results: Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46 % of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Conclusions: Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/09669-6 - Dinâmica de transmissão de malária em diferentes limiares de fragmentação da paisagem
• Beneficiário: Gabriel Zorello Laporta
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa BIOTA - Jovens Pesquisadores
• Processo FAPESP: 14/26229-7 - Genômica de paisagens em gradientes latitudinais e ecologia de Anopheles darlingi
• Beneficiário: Maria Anice Mureb Sallum
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 14/09774-1 - Dinâmica de transmissão de malária em diferentes limiares de fragmentação da paisagem
• Beneficiário: Gabriel Zorello Laporta
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Jovens Pesquisadores