Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

Autor(es)

Chazot, Nicolas ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Wahlberg, Niklas ^[2] ; Lucci Freitas, Andre Victor ^[4] ; Mitter, Charles ^[5] ; Labandeira, Conrad ^{[5, 6, 7, 8, 9]} ; Sohn, Jae-Cheon ^[10] ; Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar ^[11] ; Seraphim, Noemy ^[12] ; de Jong, Rienk ^[13] ; Heikkilae, Maria ^[14]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es):Mostrar menos -

^[1] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Box 461, S-40530 Gothenburg - Sweden

^[2] Lund Univ, Dept Biol, Solvegatan 37, S-22362 Lund - Sweden

^[3] Gothenburg Global Biodivers Ctr, Box 461, S-40530 Gothenburg - Sweden

^[4] Univ Estadual Campinas UNICAMP, Inst Biol, Dept Biol Anim, Caixa Postal 6109, BR-13083970 Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[5] Univ Maryland, Dept Entomol, 4291 Fieldhouse Dr, College Pk, MD 20742 - USA

^[6] Smithsonian Inst, Natl Museum Nat Hist, Dept Paleobiol, 10th St & Constitut Ave, Washington, DC 20013 - USA

^[7] Univ Maryland, Dept Entomol, 4291 Fieldhouse Dr, College Pk, MD 20741 - USA

^[8] Univ Maryland, BEES Program, 4291 Fieldhouse Dr, College Pk, MD 20741 - USA

^[9] Capital Normal Univ, Sch Life Sci, Key Lab Insect Evolut & Environm Change, XinJieKouWai St, Beijing 100048 - Peoples R China

^[10] Gongju Natl Univ Educ, Dept Sci Educ, 27 Ungjin Ro, Gongju Si 32553, Chungnam - South Korea

^[11] Indian Inst Sci Educ & Res, Sch Biol, IISER TVM Ctr Res & Educ Ecol & Evolut ICREEE, Thiruvananthapuram 695551, Kerala - India

^[12] Inst Fed Educ Ciencia & Tecnol Sao Paulo, Campus Campinas, BR-13069901 Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[13] Nat Biodivers Ctr, Dept Entomol, POB 9517, NL-2300 RA Leiden - Netherlands

^[14] Univ Helsinki, Zool Unit, Finnish Museum Nat Hist LUOMUS, POB 17, FI-00014 Helsinki - Finland

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Systematic Biology; v. 68, n. 5, p. 797-813, SEP 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 8

Resumo

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 11/50225-3 - História natural, filogenia e conservação de lepidópteros neotropicais
• Beneficiário: André Victor Lucci Freitas
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Regular