Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

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Almazroui, Mansour ^{[1, 2]} ; Ashfaq, Moetasim ^[3] ; Islam, M. Nazrul ^[2] ; Rashid, Irfan Ur ^[4] ; Kamil, Shahzad ^[4] ; Abid, Muhammad Adnan ^[5] ; O'Brien, Enda ^[6] ; Ismail, Muhammad ^[2] ; Reboita, Michelle Simoes ^[7] ; Sorensson, Anna A. ^{[8, 9, 10]} ; Arias, Paola A. ^[11] ; Alves, Lincoln Muniz ^[12] ; Tippett, Michael K. ^[13] ; Saeed, Sajjad ^{[5, 14]} ; Haarsma, Rein ^[15] ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. ^{[16, 17]} ; Saeed, Fahad ^[18] ; Kucharski, Fred ^[5] ; Nadeem, Imran ^[19] ; Silva-Vidal, Yamina ^[20] ; Rivera, Juan A. ^{[21, 22]} ; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar ^[23] ; Martinez-Castro, Daniel ^[24] ; Munoz, Angel G. ^[23] ; Ali, Md Arfan ^[25] ; Coppola, Erika ^[5] ; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba ^[26]

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^[1] Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk - England

^[2] King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Dept Meteorol, Jeddah 21589 - Saudi Arabia

^[3] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Computat Sci & Engn Div, Oak Ridge, TN - USA

^[4] Pakistan Meteorol Dept, Climate Change Impact & Integrat Cell CIIC, Islamabad - Pakistan

^[5] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste - Italy

^[6] Irish Ctr High End Comp, Galway - Ireland

^[7] Univ Fed Itajuba, Itajuba - Brazil

^[8] Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina

^[9] Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina

^[10] UBA, CONICET, CNRS, IRD, IRL IFAECI 3351, Inst Franco Argentino Estudio Clima & Sus Impacto, Buenos Aires, DF - Argentina

^[11] Univ Antioquia, Fac Ingn, Escuela Ambiental, Grp Ingn & Gest Ambiental GIGA, Medellin - Colombia

^[12] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais INPE, Sao Jose De Campos, SP - Brazil

^[13] Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY - USA

^[14] Univ Leuven, KU Leuven, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Leuven - Belgium

^[15] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt - Netherlands

^[16] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats ICREA, Barcelona - Spain

^[17] Barcelona Supercomp Ctr BSC, Barcelona - Spain

^[18] Climate Analyt, Berlin - Germany

^[19] Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Meteorol & Climatol, Vienna - Austria

^[20] Inst Geofis Peru, Lima - Peru

^[21] CCT CONICET Mendoza, Inst Argentino Nivol Glaciol & Ciencias Ambiental, Mendoza - Argentina

^[22] Univ Juan Agustin Maza, Mendoza - Argentina

^[23] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc IRI, Palisades, NY - USA

^[24] Inst Nacl Invest Glaciares & Ecosistemas Montana, Huaraz, Ancash - Peru

^[25] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol NUIST, Sch Marine Sci SMS, Lab Environm Remote Sensing, Nanjing 210044 - Peoples R China

^[26] African Inst Math Sci, Kigali - Rwanda

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT; JUN 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040-2059 and 2080-2099) relative to the reference period (1995-2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes-a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1-2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático