| Texto completo | |
| Autor(es): Mostrar menos - |
Singh, M.
;
Krishnan, R.
;
Goswami, B.
;
Choudhury, A. D.
;
Swapna, P.
;
Vellore, R.
;
Prajeesh, A. G.
;
Sandeep, N.
;
Venkataraman, C.
;
Donner, R., V
;
Marwan, N.
;
Kurths, J.
Número total de Autores: 12
|
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo Científico |
| Fonte: | SCIENCE ADVANCES; v. 6, n. 38, p. 11-pg., 2020-09-01. |
| Resumo | |
Coupling of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions. (AU) | |
| Processo FAPESP: | 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações |
| Beneficiário: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático |