Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread

Autor(es)

Gabrick, Enrique C. ; Sayari, Elaheh ; Protachevicz, Paulo R. ; Szezech Jr, Jose D. ; Iarosz, Kelly C. ; de Souza, Silvio L. T. ; Almeida, Alexandre C. L. ; Viana, Ricardo L. ; Caldas, Ibere L. ; Batista, Antonio M.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS; v. 166, p. 8-pg., 2022-12-13.

Resumo

In this work, we study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases considering a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. To investigate the dynamical behaviour, we compute bifurcation diagrams type hysteresis and their respective Lyapunov exponents. Our results from bifurcations and the largest Lyapunov exponent show bistable dynamics for all the parameters of the model. Choosing the inverse of latent period as control parameter, over 70% of the interval comprises the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors, bistable dynamics. Despite the competition between these attractors, the chaotic ones are preferred. The bistability occurs in two wide regions. One of these regions is limited by periodic attractors, while periodic and chaotic attractors bound the other. As the boundary of the second bistable region is composed of periodic and chaotic attractors, it is possible to interpret these critical points as tipping points. In other words, depending on the latent period, a periodic attractor (predictability) can evolve to a chaotic attractor (unpredictability). Therefore, we show that unpredictability is associated with bistable dynamics preferably chaotic, and, furthermore, there is a tipping point associated with unpredictable dynamics. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 22/05153-9 - Redes neuronais com plasticidade de curta duração
• Beneficiário: Paulo Ricardo Protachevicz
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 18/03211-6 - Dinâmica não linear
• Beneficiário: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 20/04624-2 - Plasticidade sináptica em redes neuronais
• Beneficiário: Paulo Ricardo Protachevicz
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado