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Martins, Minella Alves ; Collste, David ; Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva ; Miranda, Marcela Aparecida Campos Neves ; Goncalves, Andre Rodrigues ; Barros, Jocilene Dantas ; Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira ; Silvino, Amanda Sousa ; Sonetti-Gonzalez, Tais ; Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud ; von Randow, Celso ; Tomasella, Javier ; de Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: AMBIO; v. 53, n. 12, p. 15-pg., 2024-08-08.

Resumo

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the S & atilde;o Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 22/00917-0 - Identificação de indicadores e de tipologias de adaptação e resiliência socioambiental para a construção de visões de futuro
• Beneficiário: Minella Alves Martins
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 17/22269-2 - Transição para sustentabilidade e o nexo água-agricultura-energia: explorando uma abordagem integradora com casos de estudo nos biomas Cerrado e Caatinga
• Beneficiário: Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático