Autor(es)

Brunetti, H. B. ; Fattori Junior, I. M. ; Dias, T. S. S. ; de Melo, M. L. A. ; Santos, P. M. ; Pezzopane, J. R. M. ; Boote, K. J. ; Marin, F. R.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS; v. 233, p. 17-pg., 2025-12-26.

Resumo

CONTEXT: Brazil hosts the world's largest commercial cattle herd, primarily raised in pasture-based systems that occupy around 164 million ha. Increasing beef production while minimizing environmental impacts is essential. Although climate change is expected to significantly affect global crop yields, comprehensive assessments of its impacts on forage production in Brazil remain scarce. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate (i) the effects of climate change on forage yield, seasonality, and climate risk for Marandu palisadegrass (Urochloa brizantha cv. BRS Marandu) and Mombasa guineagrass (Megathyrsus maximus cv. BRS Mombasa) by 2050, and (ii) the effectiveness of pasture deferment and forage ensiling as mitigation strategies. METHODS: We used the process-based CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model (CROPGRO-PFM) driven by 10 Global Circulation Models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2035-2065 period, compared to a baseline (1989-2019). For the deferment simulation, pastures were left ungrazed for 75 days preceding the three consecutive months with the lowest herbage accumulation rates (HAR), assuming that 50 % of the accumulated dead material remained available for intake. Ensiling was simulated for 90 days during the three months with the highest HARs, assuming 75 % dry matter recovery, which was subsequently allocated to the three months with the lowest HAR. Both management practices were applied to 30 % of the pasture area. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 24/19920-7 - Aumento da produtividade em áreas de pastagens degradadas no Brasil para suprir a demanda mundial por carne bovina no futuro
• Beneficiário: Henrique Bauab Brunetti
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 24/12895-7 - Simulação de cenários futuros para pastagens no Brasil: estratégias para minimização de riscos climáticos
• Beneficiário: Henrique Bauab Brunetti
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa Fixação de Jovens Doutores
• Processo FAPESP: 21/10573-4 - Centro de pesquisa de carbono em agricultura tropical(ccarbon)
• Beneficiário: Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs