Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies

Resumo

The study will estimate the socio-economic impacts of climate changes in Brazil and its regions. A trend scenario for the Brazilian economy and its regions will be produced, which will be the baseline for the analysis of climate changes. Changes in temperature, rainfall and other relevant climate aspects will be translated into changes in energy production and consumption, and into agricultural productivity. These two dimensions will be then produce economic changes in the regions, which will be captured by a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model. A set of social indicators will be associated to those changes in regional GDP and employment. These quantitative results will produce inputs for the simulation of the effects on the country, and on its regions, of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. Adaptation will be included in another fashion, involving the point of view of economic agents, exploring how different stimuli affect them. This will involve not only entrepreneurs (farmers, manufacturers) but also consumption (individuals and households). Knowledge of these quantitative impacts and the possible reactions to different stimuli will provide important information for the design of public policies and international negotiations strategies. (AU)