Assessing uncertainties in surface water security: An empirical multimodel approach

Autor(es)

Rodrigues, Dulce B. B. ^[1] ; Gupta, Hoshin V. ^[2] ; Mendiondo, Eduardo M. ^{[1, 3]} ; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Hydraul & Sanit Engn, Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 - USA

^[3] Minist Sci Technol & Innovat CEMADEN MCTI, Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat Disasters, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH; v. 51, n. 11, p. 9013-9028, NOV 2015.
• Citações Web of Science: 3

Resumo

Various uncertainties are involved in the representation of processes that characterize interactions among societal needs, ecosystem functioning, and hydrological conditions. Here we develop an empirical uncertainty assessment of water security indicators that characterize scarcity and vulnerability, based on a multimodel and resampling framework. We consider several uncertainty sources including those related to (i) observed streamflow data; (ii) hydrological model structure; (iii) residual analysis; (iv) the method for defining Environmental Flow Requirement; (v) the definition of critical conditions for water provision; and (vi) the critical demand imposed by human activities. We estimate the overall hydrological model uncertainty by means of a residual bootstrap resampling approach, and by uncertainty propagation through different methodological arrangements applied to a 291 km(2) agricultural basin within the Cantareira water supply system in Brazil. Together, the two-component hydrograph residual analysis and the block bootstrap resampling approach result in a more accurate and precise estimate of the uncertainty (95% confidence intervals) in the simulated time series. We then compare the uncertainty estimates associated with water security indicators using a multimodel framework and the uncertainty estimates provided by each model uncertainty estimation approach. The range of values obtained for the water security indicators suggests that the models/methods are robust and performs well in a range of plausible situations. The method is general and can be easily extended, thereby forming the basis for meaningful support to end-users facing water resource challenges by enabling them to incorporate a viable uncertainty analysis into a robust decision-making process. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/05134-0 - Modelagem dos processos hidrológicos na região de cerrado
• Beneficiário: Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira
• Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 11/11653-0 - Novo modelo de gestão da demanda hídrica em bacias hidrográficas: bases metodológicas para avaliação e mitigação da pegada hídrica(Water footprint)
• Beneficiário: Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues
• Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 08/58161-1 - Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 12/05515-6 - Análise de sensibilidade e incertezas na aplicação da pegada hídrica (water footprint) e suas projeções em bacias hidrográficas
• Beneficiário: Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues
• Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado