Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option

• Processo: 08/58161-1
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Vigência: 01 de dezembro de 2010 - 30 de novembro de 2014
• Área do conhecimento: Ciências Exatas e da Terra - Geociências - Meteorologia
• Convênio/Acordo: CNPq - Pronex
• Pesquisador responsável: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Instituição Sede: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brasil
• Pesquisadores principais: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ; Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti ; Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá
• Auxílios(s) vinculado(s): 11/20636-1 - O manto de gelo Antártico e o clima da América do Sul, AV.BR
• Bolsa(s) vinculada(s): 14/15080-2 - Seguros hídricos como mecanismos de adaptação às mudanças do solo e do clima para otimizar a outorga do uso da água sob condições de transposição de vazões, BP.MS; 13/06611-1 - Detenção e biorretenção para controle da poluição difusa na drenagem urbana: abordagem experimental-adaptativa com base ecohidrologica, BP.DR; 13/16202-1 - Middleware orientado a serviços para gerenciar dinamicamente e em tempo-real geosensores heterogêneos na gestão de inundações, BP.MS; + mais bolsas vinculadas 13/09742-0 - Uma atualização do Índice de Vulnerabilidade Socioclimática para o Brasil, BP.IC; 13/04485-9 - Modos de variabilidade das precipitações no Estado de São Paulo: conexões locais, regionais e remotas, BP.MS; 12/22013-4 - A pegada hídrica como ferramenta para a valoração dos serviços ambientais em bacias hidrográficas no contexto de mudanças climáticas, BP.DR; 12/18675-1 - AGORA: uma arquitetura geoespacial aberta e colaborativa para construir resiliência contra desastres e impactos das mudanças climáticas em comunidades vulneráveis, BE.PQ; 11/09325-4 - Poluição atmosférica e paisagem urbana no município de São Paulo, BP.IC; 11/09482-2 - O uso de geotecnologias na análise das mudanças climáticas nas metrópoles: o exemplo de São Paulo e Nova York, BE.PQ; 11/20121-1 - Mapeamento do uso e ocupação da terra na região metropolitana da Baixada Santista, BP.IC; 11/20029-8 - Diversidade socioespacial na região metropolitana da Baixada Santista (RMBS), BP.IC; 11/08579-2 - Impactos ambientais provocados pelo uso e ocupação da terra, BP.IC; 11/13976-0 - Avaliações de impactos e vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas no Brasil e estratégias de opções de adaptação, BP.PD - menos bolsas vinculadas
• Assunto(s): Mudança climática Impactos ambientais
• Palavra(s)-Chave do Pesquisador: Adaptation | Climate Change | Climate Modeling | Detection | Impacts | Vulnerability
• Publicação FAPESP: https://www.fapesp.br/pfpmcg/pfpmcg_marengo.pdf

Resumo

The Earth System Science Center CCST of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research INPE is submitting a research proposal entitled: Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation options. This project is coordinated by Dr. Jose Marengo, Senior Scientist from the CCST/INPE.The project is divided in 7 components, led by scientists from INPE, the Center of Technology and Space, Universities of the State of Sao Paulo, and it includes almost 50 scientist from various institutions of Brazil and from other countries. The sustainability of development in Brazil is strongly linked to the capacity of responding to the challenges associated with climate change. Brazil is vulnerable to present-day climate change and will be profoundly impacted by projected climate changes in the future. The objective of this project is to develop reseach focused on the areas of impacts and vulnerability and their application to indentify adaptation options to climate change. The project constitutes a step futher to the production of future climate scenarios and detection and attribution studies, making use of a new generation of regional climate scenarios being generated at INPE. We aim to establish the base for studies and assessments for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies in Brazil, using climate and vulnerability indices based on environmental, geographical-geophysical and social information, to indentify areas under risk to climate stress, and to map vulnerability of population nation and statewide. Some emphasis is on climate extremes and their impacts on water resources and planning and natural disasters of meteorological origin at national scale. Specific studies of vulnerablity and risk in the State of Sao Paulo, for the Serra do Mar, Paraiba do Sul Valley regions, the city of Sao Carlos and Campinas. It is clear that the genration of high-quality scientfic nformation to assist public policy in the areas of adaptation and mitigation. (AU)

Publicações científicas

(25)

(Referências obtidas automaticamente do Web of Science e do SciELO, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores)

OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo in the 20th century. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 61, n. 2, p. 93-107, SEP 2014. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.. A blue/green water-based accounting framework for assessment of water security. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 50, n. 9, p. 7187-7205, SEP 2014. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)

BOERS, N.; BOOKHAGEN, B.; BARBOSA, H. M. J.; MARWAN, N.; KURTHS, J.; MARENGO, J. A.. Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 5, OCT 2014. (13/50538-7, 13/50510-5, 08/58161-1, 11/50151-0)

FURQUIM, GUSTAVO; PESSIN, GUSTAVO; FAICAL, BRUNO S.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; UEYAMA, JO. Improving the accuracy of a flood forecasting model by means of machine learning and chaos theory. NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS, v. 27, n. 5, SI, p. 1129-1141, JUL 2016. (12/22550-0, 14/19076-0, 08/58161-1)

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Field investigations of the 2013-14 drought through quali-quantitative freshwater monitoring at the headwaters of the Cantareira System, Brazil. WATER INTERNATIONAL, v. 41, n. 5, p. 776-800, SEP 2016. (12/22013-4, 14/15080-2, 08/58161-1)

HORITA, FLAVIO E. A.; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; DEGROSSI, LIVIA C.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; UEYAMA, JO. Development of a spatial decision support system for flood risk management in Brazil that combines volunteered geographic information with wireless sensor networks. Computers & Geosciences, v. 80, p. 84-94, JUL 2015. (12/22550-0, 08/58161-1, 12/18675-1)

SOLMAN, SILVINA A.; SANCHEZ, E.; SAMUELSSON, P.; DA ROCHA, R. P.; LI, L.; MARENGO, J.; PESSACG, N. L.; REMEDIO, A. R. C.; CHOU, S. C.; BERBERY, H.; et al. Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties. Climate Dynamics, v. 41, n. 5-6, p. 1139-1157, SEP 2013. (08/58161-1)

FABIO DE OLIVEIRA SANCHES; ROBERTO VERDUM; GILBERTO FISCH. Estudo de tendência de chuvas de longo prazo. Rev. Ambient. Água, v. 8, n. 3, p. 214-228, 2013-12-00. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; CHOU, SIN CHAN; KAY, GILLIAN; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; PESQUERO, JOSE F.; SOARES, WAGNER R.; SANTOS, DANIEL C.; LYRA, ANDRE A.; SUEIRO, GUSTAVO; BETTS, RICHARD; et al. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, So Francisco and the Parana River basins. Climate Dynamics, v. 38, n. 9-10, p. 1829-1848, MAY 2012. (08/58161-1)

DAVI GASPARINI FERNANDES CUNHA; MARIA DO CARMO CALIJURI; EDUARDO MARIO MENDIONDO. Integração entre curvas de permanência de quantidade e qualidade da água como uma ferramenta para a gestão eficiente dos recursos hídricos. Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, v. 17, n. 4, p. 369-376, 2012-12-00. (08/58161-1, 08/55636-9, 09/50842-2)

TORRES, ROGER R.; LAPOLA, DAVID M.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; LOMBARDO, MAGDA A.. Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil. Climatic Change, v. 115, n. 3-4, p. 597-609, DEC 2012. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; SOARES, WAGNER R.; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin Climatological and Hydrological context of recent floods. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 107, n. 1-2, p. 73-85, JAN 2012. (08/58161-1)

TORRES, ROGER RODRIGUES; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO. Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 112, n. 1-2, p. 253-272, APR 2013. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; VALVERDE, MARIA C.; OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.. Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 57, n. 1, p. 61-72, 2013. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, J.; CHOU, S.; MOURAO, C.; SOLMAN, S.; SANCHEZ, E.; SAMUELSSON, P.; DA ROCHA, R. P.; LI, L.; PESSACG, N.; REMEDIO, A. R. C.; et al. Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, v. 41, n. 11-12, p. 2937-2955, DEC 2013. (08/58161-1)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.. Assessing uncertainties in surface water security: An empirical multimodel approach. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 51, n. 11, p. 9013-9028, NOV 2015. (12/05515-6, 15/05134-0, 11/11653-0, 08/58161-1)

CAMARINHA, P. I. M.; CANAVESI, V.; ALVALA, R. C. S.. Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 14, n. 9, p. 2449-2468, 2014. (08/58161-1)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; SERRAT-CAPDEVILA, ALEIX; OLIVEIRA, PAULO T. S.; MARIO MENDIONDO, E.; MADDOCK, III, THOMAS; MAHMOUD, MOHAMMED. Contrasting American and Brazilian Systems for Water Allocation and Transfers. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, v. 141, n. 7, JUL 2015. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)

DRUMOND, A.; MARENGO, J.; AMBRIZZI, T.; NIETO, R.; MOREIRA, L.; GIMENO, L.. The role of the Amazon Basin moisture in the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle: a Lagrangian analysis. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 18, n. 7, p. 2577-2598, 2014. (08/58101-9, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9, 13/50538-7)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; BERNASCONI, MAURO. Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections. Climatic Change, v. 129, n. 1-2, p. 103-115, MAR 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

BOERS, NIKLAS; RHEINWALT, ALJOSCHA; BOOKHAGEN, BODO; BARBOSA, HENRIQUE M. J.; MARWAN, NORBERT; MARENGO, JOSE; KURTHS, JUERGEN. The South American rainfall dipole: A complex network analysis of extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 41, n. 20, p. 7397-7405, OCT 28 2014. (08/58161-1)

BEDER, DELANO MEDEIROS; UEYAMA, JO; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; CHAIM, MARCOS LORDELLO. FlexFT: A Generic Framework for Developing Fault-Tolerant Applications in the Sensor Web. International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, 2013. (08/57870-9, 08/05346-4, 08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; SOARES, WAGNER R.; RODRIGUEZ, DANIEL A.. The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 38, JUN 22 2011. (08/58161-1)

DA SILVA, LIGIA A.; SATYAMURTY, PRAKKI. Evolution of the Lorenz Energy Cycle in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the South American Sector of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, v. 26, n. 10, p. 3466-3481, MAY 2013. (11/13976-0, 08/58161-1)

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; SRINIVASAN, RAGHAVAN; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; BITTENCOURT GUIMARAES, JOAO LUIS; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 22, n. 9, p. 4699-4723, SEP 7 2018. (12/22013-4, 14/50848-9, 08/58161-1, 14/15080-2)