Impact of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean on South American climate for the 20th and 21st centuries

Resumo

A better understanding of coupled atmosphere-ocean interactions has long been recognized as having the most potential to improve prediction climate and weather. The role of these interactions in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO), however, is not well understood. The SAO is the birthplace of cyclones, cold fronts passage and blocking activity. Further study is required to understand how the SAO impacts the climate over South America and particularly over Brazil considering that the ocean/atmosphere variability has the potential to have climate and (by extension) societal impacts which indicates the need for adaptation and mitigation. The main objective of this research project is to understand the South American climate variability in the present day with atmospheric and oceanographic observational data analysis and analyze future climate scenarios using data from Global Circulation Models and dynamical downscaling simulations through Regional Climate Models (RCMs). As part of its observational component, an array of buoys will be deployed in the SAO. The lack of data, and in particular surface observations, has been an enormous obstacle to a better understanding of the influence of this region on the climate of Brazil. In parallel, surface properties will be monitored via satellite and compared to in-situ observations, and historical data will be analyzed. Also, numerical experiments will be utilized to test hypotheses of the SAO influence on climate change over Brazil. (AU)