Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study

Autor(es)

de Oliveira, Lucas Lyrio ^[1] ; Kerdan, Ivan Garcia ^{[2, 3, 4]} ; Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira ^[1] ; Oller do Nascimento, Claudio Augusto ^[5] ; Rego, Erik Eduardo ^[1] ; Giarola, Sara ^[6] ; Hawkes, Adam ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Prod Engn, Polytech Sch, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Imperial Coll London, Dept Chem Engn, London - England

^[3] Univ Greenwich, Sch Design, Dept Built Environm, London - England

^[4] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ingn, Ciudad De Mexico 04510 - Mexico

^[5] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Chem Engn, Polytech Sch, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[6] Imperial Coll London, Dept Earth Sci & Engn, London - England

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS; v. 123, MAY 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2 degrees C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9-10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes costeffective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50684-9 - Sustainable gas pathways for Brazil: from microcosm to macrocosm
• Beneficiário: Reinaldo Giudici
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 17/50136-7 - UK - Brazil collaboration on the new integrated assessment model MUSE
• Beneficiário: Reinaldo Giudici
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular