Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Donges, Jonathan F. ^{[1, 2]} ; Heitzig, Jobst ^[1] ; Barfuss, Wolfram ^{[1, 3]} ; Wiedermann, Marc ^[1] ; Kassel, Johannes A. ^{[1, 4]} ; Kittel, Tim ^[3] ; Kolb, Jakob J. ^{[1, 3]} ; Kolster, Till ^{[1, 3]} ; Mueller-Hansen, Finn ^{[1, 5]} ; Otto, Ilona M. ^[1] ; Zimmerer, Kilian B. ^{[1, 6]} ; Lucht, Wolfgang ^{[1, 7, 8]}

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal & Complex Sci, Telegrafenberg A31, Potsdam 14473 - Germany

^[2] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Kraftriket 2B, Stockholm 11419 - Sweden

^[3] Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, Newtonstr 15, Berlin 12489 - Germany

^[4] Max Planck Inst Phys Komplexer Syst, Nothnitzer Str 38, Dresden 01187 - Germany

^[5] Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, EUREF Campus 19, Torgauer Str 12-15, Berlin 10829 - Germany

^[6] Heidelberg Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Neuenheimer Feld 226, Heidelberg 69120 - Germany

^[7] Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, Unter Linden 6, Berlin 10099 - Germany

^[8] Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Unter Linden 6, Berlin 10099 - Germany

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS; v. 11, n. 2, p. 395-413, MAY 4 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world-Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)-ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático