Social interaction layers in complex networks for the dynamical epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil

Autor(es)

Scabini, Leonardo F. S. ^[1] ; Ribas, Lucas C. ^[2] ; Neiva, Mariane B. ^[2] ; Junior, Altamir G. B. ^[1] ; Farfan, Alex J. F. ^[2] ; Bruno, Odemir M. ^{[1, 2]}

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos Inst Phys, Sci Comp Grp, POB 369, BR-13560970 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Math & Comp Sci, USP, Ave Trabalhador Sao Carlense 400, BR-13566590 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS; v. 564, FEB 15 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading, such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape of the epidemic dynamics is a large, complex system, considerably hard to predict. In this context, Complex networks are a great candidate for analyzing these systems due to their ability to tackle structural and dynamic properties. Therefore, this study presents a new approach to model the COVID-19 epidemic using a multi-layer complex network, where nodes represent people, edges are social contacts, and layers represent different social activities. The model improves the traditional SIR, and it is applied to study the Brazilian epidemic considering data up to 05/26/2020, and analyzing possible future actions and their consequences. The network is characterized using statistics of infection, death, and hospitalization time. To simulate isolation, social distancing, or precautionary measures, we remove layers and reduce social contact's intensity. Results show that even taking various optimistic assumptions, the current isolation levels in Brazil still may lead to a critical scenario for the healthcare system and a considerable death toll (average of 149,000). If all activities return to normal, the epidemic growth may suffer a steep increase, and the demand for ICU beds may surpass three times the country's capacity. This situation would surely lead to a catastrophic scenario, as our estimation reaches an average of 212,000 deaths, even considering that all cases are effectively treated. The increase of isolation (up to a lockdown) shows to be the best option to keep the situation under the healthcare system capacity, aside from ensuring a faster decrease of new case occurrences (months of difference), and a significantly smaller death toll (average of 87,000). (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 16/18809-9 - Deep learning e redes complexas aplicados em visão computacional
• Beneficiário: Odemir Martinez Bruno
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Parceria para Inovação Tecnológica - PITE
• Processo FAPESP: 14/08026-1 - Visão artificial e reconhecimento de padrões aplicados em plasticidade vegetal
• Beneficiário: Odemir Martinez Bruno
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 19/07811-0 - Redes neurais artificiais e redes complexas: um estudo integrativo de propriedades topológicas e reconhecimento de padrões
• Beneficiário: Leonardo Felipe dos Santos Scabini
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 16/23763-8 - Modelagem e análise de redes complexas para visão computacional
• Beneficiário: Lucas Correia Ribas
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado