Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread

Autor(es)

de Souza, Silvio L. T. ^[1] ; Batista, Antonio M. ^{[2, 3]} ; Caldas, Ibere L. ^[2] ; Iarosz, Kelly C. ^{[2, 4, 5]} ; Szezech Jr, Jose D.

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Fed Sao Joao del Rei, Campus Ctr Oeste, BR-35501296 Divinopolis, MG - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Phys, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Univ Estadual Ponta Grossa, Dept Math & Stat, BR-84030900 Ponta Grossa, PR - Brazil

^[4] FATEB, Fac Telemaco Borba, BR-84266010 Telemaco Borba, PR - Brazil

^[5] Fed Technol Univ Paranci, Grad Program Chem Engn, BR-84016210 Ponta Grossa, PR - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS; v. 142, JAN 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 18/03211-6 - Dinâmica não linear
• Beneficiário: Iberê Luiz Caldas
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático