Busca avançada
Ano de início
Entree
(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Long-term scientific impact revisited

Texto completo
Autor(es):
Reia, Sandro M. [1] ; Fontanari, Jose F. [1]
Número total de Autores: 2
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Fis Sao Carlos, Caixa Postal 369, BR-13560970 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 1
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL PLUS; v. 137, n. 1 JAN 24 2022.
Citações Web of Science: 0
Resumo

Citation-based measures are widely used as quantitative proxies for subjective factors such as the importance of a paper or even the worth of individual researchers. Here we analyze the citation histories of 4669 papers published in journals of the American Physical Society between 1960 and 1968 and argue that state-of-the-art models of citation dynamics and algorithms for forecasting nonstationary time series are very likely to fail to predict the long-term (50 years after publication) citation counts of highly-cited papers using citation data collected in a short period (say, 10 years) after publication. This is so because those papers do not exhibit distinctive short-term citation patterns, although their long-term citation patterns clearly set them apart from the other papers. We conclude that even if one accepts that citation counts are proxies for the quality of papers, they are not useful evaluative tools since the short-term counts are not informative about the long-term counts in the case of highly-cited papers. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 20/03041-3 - Modelagem matemática e computacional nas ciências sociais
Beneficiário:José Fernando Fontanari
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular