ffects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazi

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Chagas, Eduarda T. C. ^[1] ; Barros, Pedro H. ^[1] ; Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora ^[1] ; Ponte, Igor V. ^[2] ; Ximenes, Pablo ^{[2, 3]} ; Figueiredo, Flavio ^[1] ; Murai, Fabricio ^[1] ; Couto da Silva, Ana Paula ^[1] ; Almeida, Jussara M. ^[1] ; Loureiro, Antonio A. F. ^[1] ; Ramos, Heitor S. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Dept Comp Sci, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brazil

^[2] Govt State Ceara, Dept Motor Vehicles, Fortaleza, Ceara - Brazil

^[3] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Cybersecur & Privacy, Coll Comp, Atlanta, GA 30332 - USA

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PLoS One; v. 16, n. 12 DEC 7 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population's voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 20/05121-4 - Análise de dados heterogêneos em computação urbana
• Beneficiário: Heitor Soares Ramos Filho
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular