On the ergodicity assumption in Performance-Based engineering

Autor(es)

Beck, Andre T. ; Bosse, Rubia Mara ; Rodrigues, Isabela Durci

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: STRUCTURAL SAFETY; v. 97, p. 8-pg., 2022-03-28.

Resumo

In the Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) framework, uncertainties in system parameters, or modelling uncertainties, have been shown to have significant effects on capacity fragilities and annual collapse rates of buildings. Yet, since modelling uncertainties are non-ergodic variables, their consideration in failure rate calculations offends the Poisson assumption of independent crossings. This problem has been addressed in the literature, and errors found negligible for small annual collapse failure rates. However, the errors could be significant for serviceability limit states, and when failure rates are integrated in time, to provide lifetime failure probabilities. Herein, we present a novel formulation to fully avoid the error in integration of non-ergodic variables. The proposed product-of-lognormals formulation is fully compatible with popular fragility modelling approaches in PBE context. Moreover, we address collapse limit states of realistic reinforced concrete buildings, and find errors of the order of 5 to 8% for 50-year lifetimes, up to 14% for 100 years. Computation of accurate lifetime failure probabilities in a PBE context is clearly important, as it allows comparison with lifetime target reliability values for other structural analysis formulations. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 20/14072-7 - Otimização do desempenho de estruturas de concreto armado sujeitas a ações sísmicas
• Beneficiário: Isabela Durci Rodrigues
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 19/13080-9 - Projeto ótimo baseado em confiabilidade de sistemas estruturais considerando colapso progressivo
• Beneficiário: André Teófilo Beck
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular