Serial droughts and loss of hydrologic resilience in a subtropical basin: The case of water inflow into the Cantareira reservoir system in Brazil during 2013-2021

Autor(es)

Domingues, Leonardo Moreno ; Rocha, Humberto Ribeiro da

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES; v. 44, p. 18-pg., 2022-10-21.

Resumo

Study region: Southeastern Brazil, with emphasis on the Jaguari River basin, the main tributary of the Cantareira system. Study focus: We examined the basin hydroclimate variability, especially along the historical meteorological droughts between 2013 and 2021, and the hydrologic response to negative disturbances in rainfall. Field and satellite measurements of rainfall, flow, soil moisture, and water storage were used to assess the hydroclimate variability and to validate the hydrological model. Our hypothesis is that a good model performance on these validated variables improve our confidence in the representation of aquifer storage and recharge. We also estimated the long-term elasticity of flow to precipitation using the entire analysis period (27 years), and compared to the elasticity in along the serial droughts from 2017 to 2021. New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that the serial meteorological droughts were very likely unprecedented in the last 70 years, leading to hydrologic impacts over regional scale. We estimated a decrease of 6.4 mm y-1 in the soil moisture and a reduction of 26% in the aquifer recharge in the last 5 years of serial droughts. In the same period, the elasticity of flow to precipitation was 3.1, which greatly exceeded the long-term value of 2.0. This greater hydrologic sensitivity in the elasticity may represent that the resilience of the surface hydrologic system was transiently lost. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50682-6 - Investimentos pró-climáticos inteligentes em bacias de montanhas tropicais da América do Sul (ClimateWise)
• Beneficiário: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 19/23853-5 - Riscos e oportunidades regionais de mudanças do uso da terra e das mudanças climáticas aos serviços ecossistêmicos hídrico-climáticos: investigação para bacias na Caatinga e na Mata Atlântica do Sudeste
• Beneficiário: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 21/11762-5 - Centro para Segurança Hídrica e Alimentar em Zonas Críticas
• Beneficiário: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Ciência para o Desenvolvimento