Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation

Autor(es)

Drueke, Markus ; Sakschewski, Boris ; von Bloh, Werner ; Billing, Maik ; Lucht, Wolfgang ; Thonicke, Kirsten

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT; v. 4, n. 1, p. 10-pg., 2023-07-11.

Resumo

The Amazon forest is regarded as a tipping element of the Earth system, susceptible to a regime change from tropical forest to savanna and grassland due to anthropogenic land use and climate change. Previous research highlighted the role of fire in amplifying irreversible large-scale Amazon die-back. However, large-scale feedback analyses which integrate the interplay of fire with climate and land-use change are currently lacking. To address this gap, here we applied the fire-enabled Potsdam Earth Model to examine these feedback mechanisms in the Amazon. By studying forest recovery after complete deforestation, we discovered that fire prevents regrowth across 56-82% of the potential natural forest area, contingent on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This emphasizes the significant contribution of fire to the irreversible transition, effectively locking the Amazon into a stable grassland state. Introducing fire dynamics into future assessments is vital for understanding climate and land-use impacts in the region. Fire reduces the area of Amazon forest regrowth after forest dieback due to deforestation by between 56 and 82%, according to an analysis of fire-enabled Earth system model simulations driven by scenarios of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático