Analyzing and forecasting the morphology of Amazon deforestation

Autor(es)

Teixeira, Marcio J. ; Machado, Luiz A. T. ; Artaxo, Paulo ; Calheiros, Alan ; Correa, Pedro ; Franco, Marco A. ; Shimbo, Julia ; Rizzo, Luciana, V

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT; v. 586, p. 16-pg., 2025-06-15.

Resumo

This study analyzes spatial-temporal deforestation patterns in Amazonas using 36 years of land use and land cover changes . We identified contiguous deforestation patches for each year and characterized their evolution using two geometric metrics: compactness, related to the shape of the patch and equivalent radius, proportional to the deforested area. These metrics enabled the aggregation of deforestation patches into four distinct regions within the Amazon, each exhibiting unique yet consistent characteristics with different temporal evolution. Typical distributions were found for these two metrics that allow to characterize space and time evolution of the deforestation for different land-use. Pasture patches showed a gamma distribution, while agricultural lands followed a lognormal distribution. Over time, pastures exhibited a trend towards lower compactness values, whereas agriculture and silviculture demonstrated shifts towards higher compactness. The equivalent radius distribution showed increased frequency of larger deforested areas over time. These findings underscore the utility of simple geometric metrics in understanding deforestation's spatial and temporal evolution, offering valuable insights into land-use dynamics estimation in the Amazon and providing a foundation for more effective monitoring and conservation strategies. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 22/07974-0 - Efeitos sinergéticos das mudanças climáticas e do uso do solo nas fontes e sumidouros de carbono na Amazônia
• Beneficiário: Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 21/12954-5 - Gases de efeito estufa na Amazônia: integração de dados de diferentes plataformas de observação e investigação de relações com fatores ambientais
• Beneficiário: Márcio José Teixeira
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 20/15230-5 - Centro de Pesquisa e Inovação de Gases de Efeito Estufa - RCG2I
• Beneficiário: Julio Romano Meneghini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Centros de Pesquisa em Engenharia
• Processo FAPESP: 21/13610-8 - Sensoriamento remoto de gases do efeito estufa, poluentes atmosféricos e aerossóis na Amazônia
• Beneficiário: Marco Aurélio de Menezes Franco
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado