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GHENet: Attention-based Hurst exponents for the forecasting of stock market indexes

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Autor(es):
Florindo, Joao B. ; Lima, Renee Rodrigues ; dos Santos, Francisco Alves ; Alves, Jerson Leite
Número total de Autores: 4
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS; v. 667, p. 19-pg., 2025-06-01.
Resumo

Financial forecasting is a challenging and important task, with several different approaches being explored, including deep learning methods. However, most existing deep learning approaches focus on price data and traditional technical indicators. The highly complex nature of financial time series suggests potential benefits from non-linear dynamics tools. Based on that, here we propose GHENet, a model that injects non-linear dynamics information, via generalized Hurst exponents, into a deep learning predictor. To leverage the power of the Hurst features, we process them by a self-attention module, which allows the model to attend the most relevant features. The performance of our method is investigated in the forecasting of several world-wide stock market indexes and in a trading simulation. GHENet outperforms other state-of-the-art approaches, including complex deep learning models and methods that inject exogenous variables into the data. Our proposal also demonstrates to be tolerant to hyperparameter tuning, which facilitates its use "out-of-the-box". (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 20/01984-8 - Introduzindo elementos de geometria fractal em redes convolucionais profundas: uma aplicação ao reconhecimento e categorização do Câncer de Pulmão
Beneficiário:Joao Batista Florindo
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular