| Texto completo | |
| Autor(es): |
Leite, Emily Aquino
;
da Silva, Evandro H. Figueiredo Moura
;
Fattori Junior, Izael Martins
;
Marin, Fabio R.
Número total de Autores: 4
|
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo Científico |
| Fonte: | AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS; v. 231, p. 10-pg., 2025-09-16. |
| Resumo | |
Context: Sugarcane-based bioenergy systems are critical in Brazil's renewable energy sector, contributing significantly to global efforts to reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, climate change introduces uncertainties related to sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and greenhouse gas emissions. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, increasing temperatures, and shifts in precipitation patterns are expected to impact Brazil's bioenergy cultivated areas, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of their effects on sugarcane production and environmental sustainability. Objective: This study assessed the effects of rising CO2, temperature increases, and altered precipitation on sugarcane yield, crop water productivity (WP), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions across Brazil's bioenergy cultivation areas under future climate scenarios. Methods: We integrated the CSM-SAMUCA-Sugarcane model with the DSSAT-GHG module to simulate sugarcane systems across nine agroclimatic zones. Future projections (2040-2070) were based on 20 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Results and conclusions: SSP1-2.6 (low-emission scenario) showed minor yield changes, with some CO2 fertilization gains. SSP3-7.0 (intermediate/high-emission scenario) may increase yield by up to 10 % due to warming and CO2 effects. However, SSP5-8.5 (most extreme warming) and rainfall reductions increased yield variability. N2O emissions may rise by 5-30 %, with intensities up to 40 % higher, driven by warmer soils and faster residue decomposition. WP responses varied: some regions gained from CO2-induced efficiency, others declined due to soil moisture limits. Significance: Balancing yield improvements with N2O mitigation under climate change remains a challenge. Climate-resilient nitrogen and residue management strategies are essential to ensure sustainable bioenergy production in Brazil. (AU) | |
| Processo FAPESP: | 21/00720-0 - Avanço nas bases de dados e técnicas de modelagem para análise de eficiência de sistemas agrícolas brasileiros |
| Beneficiário: | Fabio Ricardo Marin |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular |
| Processo FAPESP: | 21/10573-4 - Centro de Pesquisa de Carbono em Agricultura Tropical (CCARBON) |
| Beneficiário: | Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs |
| Processo FAPESP: | 22/16715-8 - Melhorando o DSSAT para simulação de emissões de gases de efeito estufa para sistemas de cultivo no brasil |
| Beneficiário: | Evandro Henrique Figueiredo Moura da Silva |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Pós-Doutorado |
| Processo FAPESP: | 22/02396-8 - Aprimorando modelos de culturas para balanços de C e N: cenários de longo prazo para melhorar as práticas de manejo agrícola sustentável |
| Beneficiário: | Evandro Henrique Figueiredo Moura da Silva |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado |