Autor(es)

Greschuk, Lucas T. ; Ogle, Stephen ; Locatelli, Jorge L. ; Gurung, Ram B. ; Schiebelbein, Bruna E. ; Signor, Diana ; Tonucci, Rafael G. ; Frazao, Leidivan A. ; Cherubin, Mauricio R.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Journal of Environmental Management; v. 398, p. 16-pg., 2026-01-15.

Resumo

Dryland regions of Brazil are increasingly threatened by climate change, which intensifies aridity and reduces agricultural productivity. In this context, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a critical role in sustaining agroecosystem resilience. This study used the DayCent ecosystem model to simulate long-term SOC dynamics (2024-2100) under current and projected climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) across three representative dryland sites: Betania do Piaui (PI), Petrolina (PE), and Sobral (CE). Field data, including SOC and N stocks, were used to calibrate and evaluate the model for a range of land-use systems, including native vegetation, conventional and intensified agroecosystems (e.g., fertilization, no-tillage, integrated crop-livestock - CLI and croplivestock-forestry - CLFI systems). R2 ranged between 0.97 and 0.73, while root mean square error (RMSE) values varied between 2.09 and 0.55 for SOC and N, respectively. Results showed that land-use conversion often reduced SOC (5-20 %, compared to native areas), especially following fire or under low-input systems. However, system intensification consistently enhanced SOC stocks - 36 to 46 %, relative to CLI-tillage - particularly in notillage and fertilized systems. Under future climate scenarios, SOC losses were projected at all sites, especially in sandy soils. Nonetheless, integrated agricultural systems (IASs), as CLI and CLFI, associated with intensified management, partially mitigated these losses up to 2100. While the adoption of intensified management practices improved system resilience, they could not fully offset the adverse effects of increased aridity. These findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies (such as soil conservation, improved nutrient management, and the adoption of IASs) to maintain soil carbon and ensure long-term sustainability in Brazilian drylands. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 20/15230-5 - Centro de Pesquisa e Inovação de Gases de Efeito Estufa - RCG2I
• Beneficiário: Julio Romano Meneghini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Centros de Pesquisa Aplicada
• Processo FAPESP: 23/00438-8 - Sequestro de carbono do solo em sistemas agrícolas integrados no semiárido Brasileiro
• Beneficiário: Lucas Tadeu Greschuk
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 14/50279-4 - Brasil Research Centre for Gas Innovation
• Beneficiário: Julio Romano Meneghini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa Centros de Pesquisa Aplicada
• Processo FAPESP: 24/07837-8 - Sistemas agrícolas integrados e impactos das mudanças climáticas no armazenamento de carbono no solo no semiárido brasileiro
• Beneficiário: Lucas Tadeu Greschuk
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 23/10897-0 - Desenvolvimento de ferramentas on-farm e computacionais para avaliar a saúde do solo em áreas agrícolas brasileiras
• Beneficiário: Bruna Emanuele Schiebelbein
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 24/08419-5 - Desenvolvimento e aplicação de algoritmos avançados e ferramenta computacional para avaliação da saúde do solo em áreas agrícolas brasileiras
• Beneficiário: Bruna Emanuele Schiebelbein
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 21/10573-4 - Centro de Pesquisa de Carbono em Agricultura Tropical (CCARBON)
• Beneficiário: Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs