| Texto completo | |
| Autor(es): |
Pereira, Paulo Roberto Mendes
;
Bolfe, Edson Luis
;
Costa, Francisco Wendell Dias
;
Rodrigues, Taissa Caroline Silva
;
Farias Filho, Marcelino Silva
;
Braga, Eduarda Vaz
Número total de Autores: 6
|
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo Científico |
| Fonte: | GEOMATICS; v. 5, n. 4, p. 31-pg., 2025-11-17. |
| Resumo | |
Land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by agricultural and livestock expansion pose significant threats to the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado). This study aimed to analyze, map, and simulate LULC changes in the southern mesoregion of Maranh & atilde;o State by generating geospatial scenarios projected through 2030. LULC changes between 2015 and 2020 were analyzed using Landsat images classified with the Random Forest machine learning algorithm. A spatial model based on cellular automata was employed to simulate land use and land cover scenarios for the year 2030. When comparing the simulated map with the reference map, an overall accuracy of 70.28% and a Kappa index of 0.608 were observed. Results revealed a decrease in native savanna and grassland areas, with a corresponding increase in agricultural and pasturelands, notably in municipalities such as Balsas, Riach & atilde;o, Tasso Fragoso, Carolina and Porto Franco. The 2030 simulation predicts continued agricultural expansion and a potential reduction of approximately 19% in native Cerrado vegetation cover, highlighting municipalities of Campestre do Maranh & atilde;o, Porto Franco, S & atilde;o Jo & atilde;o do Para & iacute;so, Feira Nova, Estreito, Balsas, Tasso Fragoso and Carolina. These findings underscore the value of integrating remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques within the framework of Geomatics to support environmental monitoring and management of land-use dynamics, including expansion, contraction, diversification, and agricultural intensification. This approach provides critical insights into anthropogenic impacts on sensitive ecosystems, informing sustainable planning in tropical savanna regions. (AU) | |
| Processo FAPESP: | 22/09319-9 - Centro de Ciência para o Desenvolvimento em Agricultura Digital - CCD-AD/SemeAr |
| Beneficiário: | Silvia Maria Fonseca Silveira Massruhá |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Ciência para o Desenvolvimento |
| Processo FAPESP: | 19/26222-6 - Mapeamento agropecuário no Cerrado via combinação de imagens multisensores |
| Beneficiário: | Édson Luis Bolfe |
| Modalidade de apoio: | Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular |