Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and Sao Paulo Water Supply Crisis

Autor(es)

Coutinho, Renato M. ^[1] ; Kraenkel, Roberto A. ^[1] ; Prado, Paulo I. ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Estadual Paulista UNESP, Inst Fis Teor, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Biociencias, LAGE Dept Ecol, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PLoS One; v. 10, n. 9 SEP 15 2015.
• Citações Web of Science: 17

Resumo

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 10/09464-1 - Dinâmica de populações estruturadas
• Beneficiário: Renato Mendes Coutinho
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado