Autor(es)

Bastos, Marco T. ^[1] ; Mercea, Dan ^[2] ; Charpentier, Arthur ^[3]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Duke Univ, Franklin Human Inst, Durham, NC 27708 - USA

^[2] City Univ London, Dept Sociol, London EC1R 0JD - England

^[3] Univ Quebec, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ H2X 3Y7 - Canada

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION; v. 65, n. 2, p. 320-350, APR 2015.
• Citações Web of Science: 23

Resumo

Recent protests have fuelled deliberations about the extent to which social media ignites popular uprisings. In this article, we use time-series data of Twitter, Facebook, and onsite protests to assess the Granger causality between social media streams and onsite developments at the Indignados, Occupy, and Brazilian Vinegar protests. After applying Gaussianization to the data, we found contentious communication on Twitter and Facebook forecasted onsite protest during the Indignados and Occupy protests, with bidirectional Granger causality between online and onsite protest in the Occupy series. Conversely, the Vinegar demonstrations presented Granger causality between Facebook and Twitter communication, and separately between protestors and injuries/arrests onsite. We conclude that the effective forecasting of protest activity likely varies across different instances of political unrest. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 11/22495-6 - Notícia em rede: a produção da notícia no Twitter
• Beneficiário: Marco Toledo de Assis Bastos
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 10/06243-4 - NETCLUSTERING: um modelo teórico para redes emergentes
• Beneficiário: Marco Toledo de Assis Bastos
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado