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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Continental-scale patterns and climatic drivers of fruiting phenology: A quantitative Neotropical review

Texto completo
Autor(es):
Mendoza, Irene ; Peres, Carlos A. ; Morellato, Leonor Patricia C.
Número total de Autores: 3
Tipo de documento: Artigo de Revisão
Fonte: GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE; v. 148, p. 227-241, JAN 2017.
Citações Web of Science: 21
Resumo

Changes in the life cycle of organisms (i.e. phenology) are one of the most widely used early-warning indicators of climate change, yet this remains poorly understood throughout the tropics. We exhaustively reviewed any published and unpublished study on fruiting phenology carried out at the community level in the American tropics and subtropics (latitudinal range: 26 degrees N-26 degrees S) to (1) provide a comprehensive overview of the current status of fruiting phenology research throughout the Neotropics; (2) unravel the climatic factors that have been widely reported as drivers of fruiting phenology; and (3) provide a preliminary assessment of the potential phenological responses of plants under future climatic scenarios. Despite the large number of phenological datasets uncovered (218), our review shows that their geographic distribution is very uneven and insufficient for the large surface of the Neotropics (similar to 1 dataset per similar to 78,000 km(2)). Phenological research is concentrated in few areas with many studies (state of Sfio Paulo, Brazil, and Costa Rica), whereas vast regions elsewhere are entirely unstudied. Sampling effort in fruiting phenology studies was generally low: the majority of datasets targeted fewer than 100 plant species (71%), lasted 2 years or less (72%), and only 10.4% monitored >15 individuals per species. We uncovered only 10 sites with ten or more years of phenological monitoring. The ratio of numbers of species sampled to overall estimates of plant species richness was wholly insufficient for highly diverse vegetation types such as tropical rainforest, seasonal forest and cerrado, and only slightly more robust for less diverse vegetation types, such as deserts, arid shrublands and open grassy savannas. Most plausible drivers of phenology extracted from these datasets were environmental (78.5%), whereas biotic drivers were rare (6%). Among climatic factors, rainfall was explicitly included in 73.4% of cases, followed by air temperature (19.3%). Other environmental cues such as water level (6%), solar radiation or photoperiod (3.2%), and ENSO events (1.4%) were rarely addressed. In addition, drivers were analyzed statistically in only 38% of datasets and techniques were basically correlative, with only 4.8% of studies including any consideration of the inherently autocorrelated character of phenological time series. Fruiting peaks were significantly more often reported during the rainy season both in rainforests and cerrado woodlands, which is at odds with the relatively aseasonal character of the former vegetation type. Given that climatic models predict harsh future conditions for the tropics, we urgently need' to determine the magnitude of changes in plant reproductive phenology and distinguish those from cyclical oscillations. Longterm monitoring and herbarium data are therefore key for detecting these trends. Our review shows that the unevenness in geographic distribution of studies, and diversity of sampling methods, vegetation types, and research motivation hinder the emergence of clear general phenological patterns and drivers for the Neotropics. We therefore call for prioritizing research in unexplored areas, and improving the quantitative component and statistical design of reproductive phenology studies to enhance our predictions of climate change impacts on tropical plants and animals. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 07/59779-6 - Estudo comparativo da diversidade e da fenologia reprodutiva e vegetativa entre borda e interior num fragmento de Cerrado em Itirapina, São Paulo
Beneficiário:Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
Processo FAPESP: 12/21601-0 - Respostas fenológicas de plantas lenhosas às mudanças climáticas: uma análise comparativa nos Neotrópicos
Beneficiário:Irene Mendoza Sagrera
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 10/51307-0 - Diversidade florística e padrões sazonais dos campos rupestres e cerrado
Beneficiário:Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Parceria para Inovação Tecnológica - PITE
Processo FAPESP: 06/61759-0 - Fenologia de espécies de Floresta Atlântica do Estado de São Paulo: comparação entre estratos, influência de borda natural e importância da família Myrtaceae
Beneficiário:Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
Processo FAPESP: 13/21968-3 - Correlações entre o clima e a estacionalidade da frutificação no longo dos Neotrópicos
Beneficiário:Irene Mendoza Sagrera
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Pós-Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 13/50155-0 - Combining new technologies to monitor phenology from leaves to ecosystems
Beneficiário:Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - PITE