A nonhomogeneous Poisson process geostatistical model

Autor(es)

Castro Morales, Fidel Ernesto ; Vicini, Lorena ; Hotta, Luiz K. ; Achcar, Jorge A.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT; v. 31, n. 2, p. 493-507, FEB 2017.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

This paper introduces a new geostatistical model for counting data under a space-time approach using nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, where the random intensity process has an additive formulation with two components: a Gaussian spatial component and a component accounting for the temporal effect. Inferences of interest for the proposed model are obtained under the Bayesian paradigm. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model, we first develop a simulation study to test the efficacy of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to generate samples for the joint posterior distribution of the model's parameters. This study shows that the convergence of the MCMC algorithm used to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest is easily obtained for different scenarios. As a second illustration, the proposed model is applied to a real data set related to ozone air pollution collected in 22 monitoring stations in Mexico City in the 2010 year. The proposed geostatistical model has good performance in the data analysis, in terms of fit to the data and in the identification of the regions with the highest pollution levels, that is, the southwest, the central and the northwest regions of Mexico City. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 09/15098-0 - Avaliando controle de epidemias utilizando modelos matemáticos e computacionais
• Beneficiário: Hyun Mo Yang
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático