Evaluation of Models to Estimate Percent Time Spent Following on Two-Lane Highways

Autor(es)

Bessa, Jr., Jose Elievam ; Setti, Jose Reynaldo ; Washburn, Scott S.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING PART A-SYSTEMS; v. 143, n. 5 MAY 2017.
• Citações Web of Science: 2

Resumo

Four analytical models to estimate percent time spent following (PTSF) on two-lane highways were tested with data from 16 sites in Brazil. Besides percent following, the models are based on shockwave analysis, moving-bottleneck theory, or queuing theory. As direct measurement of the PTSF is impractical, PTSF values produced by a simulation program were the basis for comparison (observed PTSF values). The quality of the PTSF estimates produced by the four models was tested using 442 observations and four goodness-of-fit functions {[}mean normalized error (MNE), mean absolute normalized error (MANE), root-mean squared normalized error (RMSNE), and correlation coefficient r]. Although some degree of correlation between the estimated and observed PTSF values was detected, none of the four models was able to provide reliable estimates of PTSF, as indicated by high mean normalized errors (around 35%) and mean absolute normalized errors that were, on average, close to 50%. (C) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 13/04267-1 - Medidas de desempenho para rodovias de pista simples no Brasil
• Beneficiário: José Elievam Bessa Júnior
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 10/01809-0 - Medidas de desempenho para avaliação da qualidade de serviço em rodovias de pista simples no Brasil
• Beneficiário: José Elievam Bessa Júnior
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado