The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications

Autor(es)

Durante, Leonardo M. ^{[1, 2]} ; Cruz, Igor C. S. ^{[3, 1]} ; Lotufo, Tito M. C. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Oceanog Inst, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Otago, Dunedin - New Zealand

^[3] Univ Fed Bahia, Salvador, BA - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PeerJ; v. 6, MAY 17 2018.
• Citações Web of Science: 3

Resumo

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 16/05296-3 - Modelagem de habitat do anthozoário Palythoa caríbaeorum na costa oeste do Atlântico, aspectos atuais e futuros
• Beneficiário: Leonardo Maia Durante
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Iniciação Científica
• Processo FAPESP: 14/17815-0 - Desenvolvimento metodológico para detecção de mudanças de fase em recifes de corais a partir de sensores ópticos instalados em drone
• Beneficiário: Igor Cristino Silva Cruz
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado