The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications

Author(s)

Durante, Leonardo M. ^{[1, 2]} ; Cruz, Igor C. S. ^{[3, 1]} ; Lotufo, Tito M. C. ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Oceanog Inst, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Otago, Dunedin - New Zealand

^[3] Univ Fed Bahia, Salvador, BA - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PeerJ; v. 6, MAY 17 2018.
• Web of Science Citations: 3

Abstract

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/05296-3 - Habitat modeling of the anthozoan Palythoa caribaeorum along the Western Atlantic Ocean: present and future aspects
• Grantee: Leonardo Maia Durante
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• FAPESP's process: 14/17815-0 - Technological development of remote sensing to detect phase shifts on coral reefs using optical sensors installed in drone
• Grantee: Igor Cristino Silva Cruz
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral