An SIQ delay differential equations model for disease control via isolation

Autor(es)

Ruschel, Stefan ^[1] ; Pereira, Tiago ^[2] ; Yanchuk, Serhiy ^[1] ; Young, Lai-Sang ^[3]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Math, Str 17 Juni 136, D-10623 Berlin - Germany

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Ciencias Matemat & Comp, Ave Trabalhador Sao Carlense, 400 Ctr, BR-13566590 Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil

^[3] NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, 251 Mercer St, New York, NY 10012 - USA

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Journal of Mathematical Biology; v. 79, n. 1, p. 249-279, JUL 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to mankind. When preventive health care cannot be provided, a viable means of disease control is the isolation of individuals who may be infected. To study the impact of isolation, we propose a system of delay differential equations and offer our model analysis based on the geometric theory of semi-flows. Calibrating the response to an outbreak in terms of the fraction of infectious individuals isolated and the speed with which this is done, we deduce the minimum response required to curb an incipient outbreak, and predict the ensuing endemic state should the infection continue to spread. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Centro de Ciências Matemáticas Aplicadas à Indústria
• Beneficiário: Francisco Louzada Neto
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs
• Processo FAPESP: 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático