The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

Autor(es)

Bender, Andreia ^[1] ; Freitas, Edmilson Dias ^[1] ; Toledo Machado, Luiz Augusto ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Astron Geofis & Ciencias Atmosfer, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Rodovia Presidente Dutra, Km 40, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Climatic Change; v. 156, n. 4, p. 471-488, OCT 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

In this work, convective parameters are applied, based on numerical simulations made with Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model, to a severe weather case which occurred in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo (MASP). Scenarios of future urban area growth and increase of building heights were made to evaluate changes in convective parameters and rainfall for the study region. Using factorial planning and factor separation methods, we found that the urban area growth predicted for 2030 is capable of increasing the amount of precipitation, mainly due to the land use change from rural to urban. In the scenario of building heights increasing, it was found a tendency for rainfall suppression. The urban area for 2030 is the major factor contributing to increasing atmospheric instability and wind shear. Vertical urban growth causes an increase in atmospheric instability and a decrease in wind shear. The interaction between urban area and building height factors increases the amount of precipitation and storm motion over the MASP. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/03804-9 - Governança ambiental da macrometrópole paulista face à variabilidade climática
• Beneficiário: Pedro Roberto Jacobi
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 15/14497-0 - Previsão imediata de tempestades intensas e entendimento dos processos físicos no interior das nuvens: o SOS-CHUVA (Sistema de Observação e Previsão de Tempo Severo)
• Beneficiário: Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático