Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming

Autor(es)

D'Agostino, Roberta ^[1] ; Brown, Josephine R. ^{[2, 3]} ; Moise, Aurel ^[4] ; Nguyen, Hanh ^[4] ; Silva Dias, Pedro L. ^[5] ; Jungclaus, Johann ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg - Germany

^[2] Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic - Australia

^[3] Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Vic - Australia

^[4] Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic - Australia

^[5] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Astron Geophys & Atmospher Sci, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Journal of Climate; v. 33, n. 22, p. 9595-9613, NOV 15 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Past changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker-Hadley changes explains the landocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/50686-1 - Paleo-vínculos na evolução das monções e dinâmica
• Beneficiário: Pedro Leite da Silva Dias
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático