Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Autor(es)

Almeida, G. B. ^[1] ; Vilches, T. N. ^[2] ; Ferreira, C. P. ^[3] ; Fortaleza, C. M. C. B. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ, Med Sch Botucatu, BR-18618687 Botucatu, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Math Stat & Sci Comp, BR-13083859 Campinas - Brazil

^[3] Sao Paulo State Univ, Inst Biosci, BR-18618689 Botucatu, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS; v. 11, n. 1 MAY 24 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals' social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 18/24811-1 - Modelagem matemática para transmissão de esquistossomose em áreas de baixa prevalência
• Beneficiário: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 18/24058-1 - Arboviroses: dinâmica e controle de vetores
• Beneficiário: Cláudia Pio Ferreira
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular