simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazi

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Tang, Yuanji ^[1] ; Serdan, Tamires D. A. ^[2] ; Alecrim, Amanda L. ^[2] ; Souza, Diego R. ^[2] ; Nacano, Bruno R. M. ^[2] ; Silva, Flaviano L. R. ^[2] ; Silva, Eliane B. ^[2] ; Poma, Sarah O. ^[2] ; Gennari-Felipe, Matheus ^[2] ; Iser-Bem, Patricia N. ^[2] ; Masi, Laureane N. ^[2] ; Tang, Sherry ^[3] ; Levada-Pires, Adriana C. ^[2] ; Hatanaka, Elaine ^[2] ; Cury-Boaventura, Maria F. ^[2] ; Borges, Fernanda T. ^[2] ; Pithon-Curi, Tania C. ^[2] ; Curpertino, Marli C. ^{[4, 5]} ; Fiamoncini, Jarlei ^{[6, 7]} ; Leandro, Carol Gois ^[8] ; Gorjao, Renata ^[2] ; Curi, Rui ^{[9, 2]} ; Hirabara, Sandro Massao ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Appl NanoFemto Technol LLC, Lowell, MA - USA

^[2] Cruzeiro do Sul Univ, Interdisciplinary Program Hlth Sci, Rua Galvao Bueno 868, BR-01506000 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Kaiser Southern Calif Permanente Med Grp, Riverside, CA 92505 - USA

^[4] Fac Dinam Vale Piranga, Med Sch, Ponte Nova, MG - Brazil

^[5] Univ Fed Vicosa, Dept Med & Nursing, Lab Epidemiol & Computat Methods Hlth, Vicosa, MG - Brazil

^[6] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Pharmaceut Sci, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[7] Food Res Ctr FoRC, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[8] Univ Fed Pernambuco, Recife, PE - Brazil

^[9] Butantan Inst, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS; v. 11, n. 1 AUG 12 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

We propose herein a mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 evolution and evaluate the impact of governmental decisions on this evolution, attempting to explain the long duration of the pandemic in the 26 Brazilian states and their capitals well as in the Federative Unit. The prediction was performed based on the growth rate of new cases in a stable period, and the graphics plotted with the significant governmental decisions to evaluate the impact on the epidemic curve in each Brazilian state and city. Analysis of the predicted new cases was correlated with the total number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19. Because Brazil is a vast country, with high heterogeneity and complexity of the regional/local characteristics and governmental authorities among Brazilian states and cities, we individually predicted the epidemic curve based on a specific stable period with reduced or minimal interference on the growth rate of new cases. We found good accuracy, mainly in a short period (weeks). The most critical governmental decisions had a significant temporal impact on pandemic curve growth. A good relationship was found between the predicted number of new cases and the total number of inpatients and deaths related to COVID-19. In summary, we demonstrated that interventional and preventive measures directly and significantly impact the COVID-19 pandemic using a simple mathematical model. This model can easily be applied, helping, and directing health and governmental authorities to make further decisions to combat the pandemic. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 18/09868-7 - Mecanismos celulares e moleculares envolvidos na resistência à insulina e inflamação em ratos Wistar obesos e Goto-Kakizaki magros: causas e associações com dieta e exercício físico
• Beneficiário: Rui Curi
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático