Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Llopart, Marta ^[1] ; Domingues, Leonardo Moreno ^[2] ; Torma, Csaba ^[3] ; Giorgi, Filippo ^[4] ; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio ^[2] ; Ambrizzi, Tercio ^[2] ; Reboita, Michelle Simoes ^[5] ; Alves, Lincoln Muniz ^[6] ; Coppola, Erika ^[4] ; da Silva, Maria Leidinice ^[7] ; de Souza, Diego Oliveira ^[8]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho UN, Bauru, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Eotvos Lorand Univ, Dept Meteorol, Budapest - Hungary

^[4] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys, Trieste - Italy

^[5] Univ Fed Itajuba UNIFEI, Inst Recursos Nat IRN, Itajuba, MG - Brazil

^[6] Ctr Ciencia Sistema Terr, Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais INPE, CCST, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[7] Univ Fed Rio Grande do Norte, Ctr Ciencia Exatas & Terra, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer & Climat, Natal, RN - Brazil

^[8] Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat Disasters, CEMADEN, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Climate Dynamics; v. 57, n. 5-6, SI, p. 1615-1628, SEP 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 5

Resumo

This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of similar to 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of similar to 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 11/50151-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 15/50122-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático