Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy

Autor(es)

Leon, J. A. ; Ordaz, M. ; Haddad, E. ; Araujo, I. F.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 13, n. 1, p. 11-pg., 2022-05-25.

Resumo

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile. The integration of risk analysis and spatial CGE modeling frameworks allowed for measuring the direct and indirect consequences of extreme events via novel probabilistic risk indicators which incorporate elements of uncertainty and systemic effects (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 19/00057-9 - Sustentabilidade agrícola e agroindustrial no Chile: modelando os impactos de mudanças climáticas e de desastres naturais em um sistema integrado
• Beneficiário: Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa Capacitação - Treinamento Técnico
• Processo FAPESP: 18/08337-8 - Sustentabilidade agrícola e agroindustrial no Chile: modelando os impactos de mudanças climáticas e de desastres naturais em um sistema integrado
• Beneficiário: Eduardo Amaral Haddad
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático