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Identifying Nonlinear Dynamics with High Confidence from Sparse Data

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Autor(es):
Batko, Bogdan ; Gameiro, Marcio ; Hung, Ying ; Kalies, William ; Mischaikow, Konstantin ; Vieira, Ewerton
Número total de Autores: 6
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS; v. 23, n. 1, p. 27-pg., 2024-01-01.
Resumo

We introduce a novel procedure that, given sparse data generated from a stationary deterministic nonlinear dynamical system, can characterize specific local and/or global dynamic behavior with rigorous probability guarantees. More precisely, the sparse data is used to construct a statistical surrogate model based on a Gaussian process (GP). The dynamics of the surrogate model is interrogated using combinatorial methods and characterized using algebraic topological invariants (Conley index). The GP predictive distribution provides a lower bound on the confidence that these topological invariants, and hence the characterized dynamics, apply to the unknown dynamical system (assumed to be a sample path of the GP). The focus of this paper is on explaining the ideas, thus we restrict our examples to one-dimensional systems and show how to capture the existence of fixed points, periodic orbits, connecting orbits, bistability, and chaotic dynamics. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 19/06249-7 - Aplicações de Métodos Computacionais e Topológicos em Sistemas Dinâmicos
Beneficiário:Marcio Fuzeto Gameiro
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular