20 Years of MCSs simulations over South America using a convection-permitting model

Autor(es)

Rehbein, Amanda ; Prein, Andreas F. ; Ambrizzi, Tercio ; Ikeda, Kyoko ; Liu, Changhai ; Rasmussen, Roy M.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Climate Dynamics; v. 63, n. 1, p. 14-pg., 2025-01-01.

Resumo

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complex meteorological phenomena that significantly influence precipitation and weather patterns globally. While extensive research on MCSs has been conducted in various parts of the world, South America, home to some of the most intense MCSs and storms, remains a relatively understudied region. This study addresses this knowledge gap by investigating observed MCSs and their representation in a 20-year 4 km grid spacing simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model across different subregions of South America. MCS characteristics, such as size, duration, and maximum precipitation, are found to be well-represented by the model, although there is a tendency to overestimate maximum precipitation. Additionally, this research explores the impact of the El Ni & ntilde;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on MCS occurrence in South America. The Southeast South America tends to experience more MCS occurrences during El Ni & ntilde;o events, while the North-South America exhibits the opposite pattern. However, the study also reveals nuanced deviations from expected correlations during specific ENSO events, highlighting the complex relationship between ENSO and MCS behavior. These findings contribute to advancing our comprehension of mesoscale convective processes in South America and set the stage for further investigations that will focus on climate change impacts on the region. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 22/05622-9 - Padrões atmosféricos dinâmicos e termodinâmicos associados a sistemas convectivos de mesoescala sobre a bacia Amazônica usando dados observacionais e simulações de alta resolução
• Beneficiário: Amanda Rehbein
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 21/07992-5 - Impacto das mudanças climáticas nos Sistemas Convectivos de Mesoescala na bacia Amazônica
• Beneficiário: Amanda Rehbein
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 17/09659-6 - Variabilidade interanual dos transportes meridionais através da rede transatlântica SAMOC (SAMBAR)
• Beneficiário: Edmo José Dias Campos
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático